AFC Record Predictions

The upcoming NFL season certainly has the makings of an all-time great season. We have teams that have gone all in on winning the Super Bowl this season, like the Rams, and on the contrary, we have plenty of teams where there is still an active QB battle in camp.  Overall, this is going to be a relatively difficult season to predict, so I brought in some backup. You may know them from game picks during the regular season, as they are giving their input on what teams' records will be before the season. It should be good fun, and remember, this is just my opinion. I am going to be starting with the AFC, and working from the lowest record in the conference to the highest.

I don't think the Knicks winning the NBA Championship will impact the teams in New York as much as some people think. This team has made adjustments and added substantially, especially on the defensive side. I do like a lot of the moves that they have made. For offense, I like drafting Omar Cooper Jr., Kenyon Sadiq, and Dylan Parham. On defense, they added 6 veteran starters and drafted David Bailey. So why am I not as high on the Jets? Well, when you sit down and look at the schedule, and what's around them in the AFC. They are in a division with the reigning AFC Champions and Josh Allen, and matchups against the NFC North and AFC West. Those alone are 10 teams that have high aspirations for the season, while the Jets are having to be complacent with Geno Smith as their QB1, someone who lost his job after one season in Vegas. As for the team ranks last season, they were the worst defense in the league, and a bottom 3 offense in the league, so the addition of 6 veterans on defense reads to me more as Aaron Glenn trying to keep his job. I do think players like to play for Glenn, so I do think the defense is bound to improve. I think this team is going to look a lot like the Browns did last season. I think there are solid pieces on defense, and they will play a lot of low-scoring, yet close games. Although I am not optimistic about the 2026 season for the Jets, I think they are actually in a solid position as a franchise, with plenty of draft capital and taking a swing at players with high potential like Bailey and Sadiq.

I think the Browns are in a similar position to the Jets, and the recent Myles Garrett trade only furthers that way of thinking. This team is clearly not intending on winning this season, or else they wouldn't have traded their future first ballot Hall of Fame player. Investing in future assets is a smart move, and one that I genuinely think, if they play their cards right, could result in them winning the AFC North within the next 5 years. Not to spoil how I feel about the rest of the AFC North, the Steelers are trying to win now with an old roster, the Bengals haven't invested their resources correctly for them to be competitive long term, and the Ravens are a competitive team, and I like their core, but they do have some aging players. So yes, I don't think this team will win many games at all this season, but their future could be bright. As for this 2026 season, there is hope for some improvement on the offensive side of the ball, as they ranked dead last in offense per EPA/play. I think Todd Monken is a so-so hire, as I don't necessarily love it, but I do like it better than Stefanski. As for the QB position, I think it is ridiculous that Watson is still in the league, so I have no doubts that Sanders will get a full run at the starter spot for the whole season. Do I believe that Sanders is a franchise QB? I genuinely do not know, and I don't think anyone does. He didn't have a good situation whatsoever last season with the limited weapons and a head coach who doesn't believe in him, so an upgrade in weaponry with a couple of rookie receivers and a few more offensive linemen. As for the defense, it obviously lost a key piece in Myles Garrett, but I don't think that's going to tank them to a bottom-of-the-league defense; they will be average. Overall, the Browns aren't really trying to win this season; they are trying to find out what young pieces are here to stay, and the most important one is Sanders. I'd imagine the plan is to know whether or not Sanders is going to be the franchise guy by the end of the season. That seems unfair to Sanders, as it isn't a lot of time to prove himself, but he was only a 5th round pick, and they would have to sense the value to move on to a new QB if it presented itself. Or, Sanders could completely prove himself to be a franchise QB, and the team wins around 7 games. Regardless, don't expect this team to be competitive this season.

This team really confuses me. It's clear they wanted to move on from the Tua Tagovailoa era, but I feel like moving on from the Mike McDaniels era wasn't entirely necessary. I think it's okay to move on, but if they wanted to give him another year, especially with Malik Willis, that would have also made sense to me. Speaking of Willis, I do like him, and I think he is a good QB and deserves a genuine chance. However, when I look at the roster and the situation with this Miami Dolphins team, this does not feel fair to Willis whatsoever. This roster is constructed as one that is going through a rebuild, most evidently by their first-round selection of a developmental offensive lineman. I also think this is a bad head coaching hire. Haffley was in charge of a Packers defense that had a lot of talent but mediocre results. It feels as if they grabbed him from the Packers, just because Malik Willis was on the Packers. Basically, the point I am trying to make is that it is weird to dish out the money for a QB when this roster is clearly in the middle of a rebuild. And whenever the team doesn't have success, and Malik Willis's stats aren't that great, in no way, shape, or form should any blame be put on Willis. The Dolphins have to at least ride out this contract and give him a genuine chance, because this team offers him no help. I could be wrong, and this team could be competitive, because I genuinely do think that Malik Willis is a good QB. However, the cherry on top that makes me feel pessimistic about this team is their offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik. Slowik has been given multiple chances as an OC with better weapons than the Dolphins and has been disappointing. Probably going to be a rough season for Dolphins fans.

Firstly, I want to acknowledge the crowd that would look at this, and say "They go 9-8 every year!" I understand that way of thinking, or sort of believing in devil magic that makes this team mediocre. To be fair, I believed it too, but I think the devil magic walked out the door when Mike Tomlin did. The way he coached and put a team together fostered an environment that would have a high floor, but a low ceiling. Now that he is out the door, I think this team has its long-overdue rebuild year. I understand that it's frustrating as a fan to go through a season where the end goal isn't necessarily winning the Super Bowl, but it's necessary when the franchise is in the position that Pittsburgh finds itself in. The roster for Pittsburgh has quite a few older pieces, especially their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was ranked 32nd among QBs in EPA/dropback, a statistic that would drive away most franchises from another contract, also considering that his play will likely continue to decline with age. The Steelers should have positioned themselves better so that they weren't awaiting an answer of whether he would play football again, and should have committed to any number of ways forward as a franchise. As for their offseason additions, they were actually pretty solid. I like the addition of Pittman and Rico Dowdle on offense, and I feel like they bolstered their secondary as well. That all being said, though, this team is playing a first-place schedule in the AFC, and there will be no breaks in terms of opponents. Ultimately, what I believe is sad is that this team certainly is not trying to rebuild. They think they can compete this season with the Rodgers/McCarthy tandem, and I don't see it working. Perhaps 5-12 is slightly harsh, but I feel confident that this team will finish with a losing record. This team has been mediocre for almost a decade, and the man keeping it from falling apart (or improving, to be fair) walked out the door. I will say that I won't have much sympathy for the Steelers after this Rodgers era, as it was an open-book test that they failed. They saw how he was in New York, and not only gave him one chance, but now two.

For what it's worth, I have the least amount of confidence in this record prediction. I think the floor is pretty low for this team, but I think the ceiling is really high. You could tell me this team has a top 3 pick again next season, and I'd believe you, or you could tell me that they are a wild-card team, and I would believe you. Obviously, they were the worst team in football last season, but to say they've had some change this offseason is selling them short. New coaching staff, new quarterback, and plenty of new pieces all around on both sides of the ball. Quite frankly, they nailed the offseason to the best of their ability. Kubiak was the best head coaching candidate available, Mendoza has good talent, and the free agent class they brought in on defense is nothing short of game-changing. I want to buy into this team so bad because I like Kubiak making an exciting offense with Bowers and Jeanty, and I want to believe that the defense makes some strides. The problem is that they were so bad last season that even with all the strides they've made this offseason, 6-11 feels realistic to me. I'd also rather play it safe and low-ball them on wins than be too high on them. For what it's worth, I think this will be the most fun a Raiders team has been in a long, long time.

Unfortunately, I don't have a lot to say about the Colts. It's hard to know for sure what to expect from them, considering they were two completely different teams. First half of the season, they were far and away one of the best teams in the league, with the top offense. Now, one could look at the first half of their season and say they didn't beat anyone of value, and that they got lucky against the Broncos. In the second half of the season, they finished 0-7. Now, one could look at the second half of the season and point out that they played all playoff teams, outside the Chiefs. However, it feels like the kind of mid-season collapse that is hard to come back from. I also feel like their offseason has been relatively lackluster, as I don't feel like they properly replaced Pittman at the WR position, nor did they really add on offense much at all. I like the additions they made on defense both through free agency and the draft, however. I think this is another team, much like the Raiders, where their ceiling is relatively high, but their floor is low. The schedule isn't too difficult, and, realistically, the offense can at least return to being the top rushing attack, along with strides made on defense. On the other side, I could see Daniel Jones being a little shaky coming off an Achilles tear; the overall offense suffers, and not enough strides are made on defense. Truthfully, this is another hard team to read, but overall, I think the team is trending in the wrong direction.

I suppose this is my first hot take, but I am higher on the Titans than most. They profile very nicely as a team that takes a second-year leap with their quarterback. Cam Ward showed enough promise and talent that you can certainly expect at least a marginal leap in play for this upcoming season. The team surrounding Cam Ward is also vastly different from the team that went 3-14 last season. Just looking at the offense, they added two starters on the offensive line, two quality receivers, and a tight end. Now it's not necessarily the weapons of an elite team, but Ward will have a much better time finding open targets, and those targets making plays. As for the defense, there are at least 12 notable additions either through the draft or free agency. Now, as for Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll coaching this team, I think we certainly know what they are capable of. I believe Saleh can give you, at a minimum, a league-average defense with this unit, and Daboll has a track record of helping young quarterbacks develop, especially when he was only the Bills' offensive coordinator. I realize that the jump from 3 to 8 wins is quite a lot, and I can understand why others might not be high on this team. I personally just see this team ticking a lot of boxes that result in winning football: A proven defensive head coach, a talented young quarterback, and resources that have been allocated to the right spots on the roster. I could be naive, but I believe regardless.

Some might see this as me being low on the Bengals, but realistically, this team hasn't been an actual threat for a while now. If you remove Burrow and Chase from the roster, this is a bottom-5 roster in the NFL. Burrow, who is a great quarterback, is injury-prone, and we saw what this team looked like without him. I don't think this team made the adjustments to all of a sudden make them a Super Bowl threat again. They added next to nothing on offense, and they added 3 defensive linemen, but they also lost Trey Hendrickson. I just get the feeling that they are closer to tearing it all down than they are to compete again, and I think next offseason, the Bengals have to ponder the idea of getting a haul for Burrow and starting over. Zac Taylor has been lackluster, and it would make sense to try to move off him as well. This is a lot of pessimism considering I have them finishing with a winning record, but my gut wants to say they will be worse than they probably will be. In all likelihood, they manage to be competitive for a wild card as long as Burrow stays healthy. I just have concerns for the organization at large.

The first losing season for the Chiefs since 2012 was certainly a disaster last season. Between the losing record and the fact that the face of the franchise, Patrick Mahomes, tore his ACL. There are doubts about when Mahomes will be back, but I think he will almost certainly play week 1, regardless of whether he is 100% healthy or not. Now, as for the record prediction, I think the team's personnel flaws are far larger than many realize. Remember, before Mahomes got injured, they were 6-8 and on the brink of being eliminated from playoff contention, so the issues weren't just because he got hurt. There were many holes on the roster going into the offseason, and I don't feel like they addressed them as well as they could have. The wide receiver room isn't in a terrific spot, although I do believe the addition of Bienemy as the OC could get more production out of Worthy. The offensive line certainly had its issues, and it wasn't addressed this offseason. They needed more production in their backfield, and I do love Kenneth Walker, but he has struggled to stay healthy and carry a full workload as the feature back. Last season was his best season, and it was likley do to the splitting of carries with Charbonnet. Their secondary was in shambles, and although I do like the draft pick of Delane, I think their secondary, which was already weak last season, isn't going to be much better this season. As for the rest of their defense, no needle was really pushed.

I do think this team does need to start moving in the direction of protecting Mahomes. The style of hero-ball, off-angle throws, and scrambling is what makes him great, yes. But he just suffered a torn ACL, not a simple injury you get over, and he is also getting older, which means your body is just more prone to injuries. The team needs to be built around taking as much weight off his shoulders as possible, and letting him show the style of hero-ball once or twice a game, not as the recipe to win the game. That all means they should invest in the run game and defense, which I think they are trying to do, but there is one move they made this offseason that concerns me: they won't be moving in this direction: Eric Bienemy. Yes, they had a top offense when he was their OC, but it was at a time when Mahomes' body was being expended at its highest level. I just think that Bienemy can't run that kind of offense, especially this season with him recovering from the ACL tear. If they want to make the most out of having a generational talent at quarterback, they need to take a page out of Tom Brady's book: focus on his longevity.

This may be one of my harsher pieces, but I have the Patriots having quite the Super Bowl hangover. I am one of those people who think that the Patriots made it to where they are because of their schedule. I don't want to spend too much time reflecting on their 2025 season, because this is about their 2026 season, but it factors into the grand scheme of how I feel about the Patriots. Saying they had the easiest schedule in the league by win percentage doesn't even do that fact justice. The best wins of their regular season were beating the Bills by 3 points when Buffalo gave them 3 turnovers, the 8-9 Ravens, and the 8-9 Bucs. That is genuinely atrocious. Then, for their postseason run, they played a Chargers team with no offensive line, a Texans team that gave them 5 free turnovers, and Jaret Stidham in the AFC Championship game. I'm not bringing this up to be rude, but to put into perspective just how much more difficult their schedule is going to be this season. They play a first-place schedule with 8 playoff teams, not including the Lions, Chiefs, and Vikings. I just think it is generally hard to evaluate a team like this, because you can't really look at their offensive and defensive ranks last season, as they are skewed considering they played two teams with a winning record during the regular season and went 1-2. I think Drake Maye is good, but once again, when he played good defenses in the playoffs, he played poorly. This offseason, I will say I like their moves for the most part. I think they had an okay draft, and they added solid talent on both sides of the ball. Completely ignoring the fact that the AJ Brown trade should have never happened due to tampering by Dianna Russini and Mike Vrabel, it's not that great of a trade for them. Brown is a good player and a good deep threat, but deep-ball passing was something the Patriots were already better than everybody at. So to me, it doesn't make sense to go from really good to really, really good at your deep-ball passing game when those resources could have been allocated elsewhere. I just think that the Super Bowl could've been the start of a rude awakening for this team. I think the foundation is there for a solid team, and I do think Drake Maye is good, and the defense is also very sound. That's why 10-7 feels reasonable to me; I just don't see this team replicating their win total from last season.

The Jaguars are a super interesting case to me. For me, I think the coaching staff and team are doing well, and the front office is not. The front office has now had 2 straight poor offseasons. Last offseason, I thought they had a poor draft class, and this offseason, they lost more talent than they acquired. Despite all of that, the Jaguars were still a really good team last season. By EPA/play, they were a top-10 unit on offense and defense. Their personnel has slightly weakened this off-season, especially with the loss of Etienne, but I don't want to sell them short again like I did last season. I think they have a good team; I just expect some slight regression, especially playing a slightly tougher schedule this season. Unfortunately, I don't have a lot to say about the Jaguars, other than I think they would've beaten the Patriots in the playoffs last season.

I get the sense that most of the NFL media landscape is pretty high on the Chargers, and I agree. I’m not necessarily calling them my Super Bowl favorites or anything of that magnitude; I do think there is plenty of reason for optimism about this ball club. I think it could be argued that the acquisition of Mike McDaniel to be their OC is the best offseason move in the entire league. McDaniel had head coaching interviews lined up, and chose to be the Chargers OC instead, and that’s a big deal. McDaniel has headed the top offense in the league multiple times, for multiple organizations. (49ers, Dolphins) Giving him the best QB he’s gotten to work with in Justin Herbert is a recipe for success. As far as personnel changes on offense, it’s mainly depth pieces, especially at the offensive line. I think it’s obvious to anyone who watched their playoff game that their offensive line was in shambles and was the reason they lost. Their rank in offensive EPA/play was 26th in the league, which I would expect to get better. As for the defense, not really any changes besides some depth pieces, which is fine because they were already a top 10 defense under Jim Harbaugh. Overall, I think it’s really easy to get excited about this team and how good they could be. That being said, they play in a tough division with not an easy schedule, and not a great playoff track record to this point. I feel like 11-6 is where I feel best with them, as their offensive line has to stay healthy in order for them to have any sort of a chance at a deep playoff push.

2026 marks the first time since 2007 that the Baltimore Ravens will be coached by someone not named Harbaugh. It comes after what many around the team would consider a disappointing season, finishing with a losing record in what was a very winnable division. However, I think the foundation is still there for them to get right back to competing. I really think Jesse Minter is a great hire, as he can utilize the elite talent that is on that defense. This team had far and away the best rushing offense in the league, and I think that there is enough for the offensive passing game to work, with a lot of underrated receivers, like recently drafted Ja'Kobi Lane. I think this team has plenty of talent to win a mediocre division. I think this team is more than capable of a deep playoff push, as I think the talent is there, but I also wouldn't rule out a sort of repeat of last season. Overall, though, I think this team bounces back and is better off without Harbaugh.

Ah, Buffalo. It feels like they are in the same position every time I write these pieces. They will have a prolific regular season, win a wild card game, then crumble in the next round. The question for this team is always: what needs to be done to get over the hump? That is where I think GM Brandon Beane and I disagree. I think the biggest blunder of the offseason for the Bills was simply promoting former OC Joe Brady to Head Coach. I get it from the perspective that he was getting other head coaching interviews, and players liked him, so you didn’t want him to leave the building, but I remember a very emotional and distraught locker room after their loss to the Broncos in the divisional round last season. The kind of loss where you feel like you have to go out of the building to find answers, not within. That being said, personnel-wise, I think it was a pretty decent offseason. DJ Moore is such a good fit in Buffalo, giving them a very legit threat on the outside, something they were hoping would develop with Keon Coleman. Other than that, it was mainly depth pieces on offense, which is fine considering it was the top offense in the league in EPA/play. I thought they did a solid job in the draft on defense to go along with their free agent signings of Bradley Chubb and CJ Gardner-Johnson. The Achilles heel of the Bills last season was their rush defense, and although they didn’t directly address it, I think it should be marginally better. Overall, I have to give the Bills props for their solid moves this offseason, as it’s clear they’re trying to move in a different direction than years past; I’m just not personally 100% sold it’s the direction that gets this team over the hump.

The Denver Broncos had a tragic end to their 2025 season, having Bo Nix go down right before a very winnable AFC Championship game in Denver. Many Broncos fans feel that if Nix didn’t go down, they would’ve had a solid chance to win the Super Bowl. While I personally disagree that they wouldn’t have beaten the Seahawks, I do think that personnel would have given Seattle a harder time. Enough about last season, how do I feel about Denver for 2026? I’m a little disappointed in their offseason. I would have guessed they would go all in and add as much talent to their roster right now, and try to win it all this season. Their offense wasn’t the greatest last season, as it was ranked 17th in EPA/play, so I would have assumed they would try and acquire more talent for Sean Payton to toy with, and all they added was Jaylen Waddle. Don’t get me wrong, I like the move, but my problem is that it was their ONLY move on offense. Why not get another threat out wide? Why not try to pay Kenneth Walker, or any talented free agent back? I think many would say you don’t need to make those moves, but you can’t take anything for granted in the NFL, and if you feel like you were already that close to a title, then acquire the talent to ensure it. They also didn’t really add much on defense either, outside of depth pieces through the draft, although I don’t mind that as much, as the defense was already talented, being a prolific sack team. That all being said, my disappointment doesn’t change the fact that this is a very talented roster in a very uncertain AFC. I think how Bo Nix bounces back from his injury is crucial to them winning the division or not, also considering the offense required him to use his legs quite a bit. I see them as the same team as last year, albeit if Nix is able to be the same QB.

The Houston Texans are the team that I am highest on in the AFC. After having the best defense in the league last year, they suffered a devastating loss in the Divisional round, where Stroud’s turnovers were the difference-makers. That being said, this team had a really good offseason. Obviously, you would look at the offense and see that there is work to be done, and work was done. They added 3 new starters to the offensive line, with depth as well. They have a very good running back now in David Montgomery, which will be a perfect complement to Woody Marks. It also goes without saying that a good rushing attack takes the ball out of your quarterback's hands more often, which means fewer turnovers. That being said, I do believe in Stroud as a quarterback. Sure, he has his problems, but it’s also undeniable that he has shown the talent as well. The receiver room is honestly one of the most underrated in the entire league, and they could get Tank Dell back in some fashion at some point during the season, who has a fantastic connection with CJ Stroud.

I think those moves are enough to at least make this offense league average, and combo that with the best defense in the league, it starts to make sense why I like them so much in what feels like an uncertain AFC. Oh, and by the way, that elite number one defense? It got better. They added Reed Blankenship, a player that Eagles coaches say is a tremendous loss to their own secondary; Kamari Ramsey, another defensive back that fits the mold for that Demeco Ryan’s defense; and the best run stopper in the draft, Kayden McDonald. Some may see it as bold, but this is my Super Bowl pick out of the AFC. Think about the structure of the reigning champions Seattle Seahawks: Elite top-end defense, a solid rushing attack with two good backs, elite production from JSN, a defensive head coach who can scheme very well, and timely elite plays made by Darnold. Now, apply that to this Houston Texans team: Elite top-end defense—Texans have that, a solid rushing attack with two good backs—Montgomery and Marks fit the mold well, elite production from JSN—while the Texans don’t have a JSN, they have Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, Tank Dell, Jaylin Noel, and Xavier Hutchinson, a defensive head coach who can scheme well—Demeco Ryan’s clearly meets that criteria, and timely elite plays made by Darnold—Stroud has that in him. I get the hesitancy about Stroud and his turnovers, but if they can get production out of him that looks like Sam Darnold last season, then I don’t see any reason why this team can’t win the Super Bowl.