NFL PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS: REFLECTION

Before the season had begun this year, on August 8th I created what I thought to believe was what each NFL team would look like by the end of the season. Well, hindsight is 20/20, and I can go back and look at some embarassing predictions, and some ones I got right as well. I figured I would give myself a grading system, just to see how well I did. The grading system will be as such, if I feel I really, really missed the mark on a teams record and season, then it will be two thumbs down, or -2. If I feel like I only sort of got it wrong, it will be only 1 thumbs down, or -1. If I feel that it is a neutral grade, where I wasn't really wrong, or wasn't really right, then it will simply be just neutral, or 0. If I feel like I got a good part of it right, then I will give it a 1 thumbs up, or +1. If I feel I was spot on, money, then I will give it a gold star, or +2. Shout out to Foolish Bailey for the rating system, and without anymore waiting, let's see what Rico was thinking in August.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (8-9)

4th in AFC North, 11th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(11-6)

2nd in AFC North, 5th in Conference

Before the Season, I had predicted the Browns to be sort of a fringe playoff team, but ultimately miss it and get last in the division. My reasoning was although I liked their draft class and free agency, I felt that their division was too tough and that they wouldn't win a lot of close games. In reality, the Cleveland Browns probably faced the most adversity this year with all of the injuries sustained to them, and if you would have told this version of me that Joe Flacco would try and lead a playoff push as the 5th seed, I would have called you crazy. But this team has overcome a lot this season, major props to the coaches and the guys who stuck it out for the Browns. I will say I missed on this prediction before the season, but since I didn't call them a bad team at all in my reasoning, just an unfortunate one, I think I can only give them:

1 THUMBS DOWN

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (10-7)

3rd in AFC North, 7th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(10-7)

3rd in AFC North, 9th in Conference

In my explanation, I thought that the Steelers had an outstanding draft, and a really solid roster, but the biggest thing it would come down to this year would be: Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada. I gave them the benefit of the doubt, and because they always finish above .500 I thought 10 games was achievable for a roster of that talent. Fast forward to now, and the Steelers are in an interesting scenario with their QB and team. unsure if Pickett is the guy of the future, and some serious question marks on offense, this team could still muster up an (8-7) record, which is shockingly well in retrospect. Now, I said they would likely be the 7th seed and squeak into the playoffs, and that almost could have been the case had they not lost to the Cardinals and Patriots. I can't really say I was wrong because I was right in my reasoning for concern for them, but I also said they would make the playoffs, which they did. 

2 THUMBS UP

BALTIMORE RAVENS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (11-6)

2nd in AFC North, 5th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(13-4)

1st in AFC North, 1st in Conference

This Ravens team was something special this year. In my pre-season prediction, I said that when healthy, this team won the #1 seed in the AFC. However, I gave caution to the fact that they probably wouldn't stay healthy this year, and to my credit, they didn't really. OBJ missed a ton of games, Mark Andrews missed the 2nd half of the season, and JK Dobbins missed the whole year. however, they won 13 games and comfortably won the 1 seed in the AFC. Now, was I correct in my prediction? A little bit. As you will come to see, it is a litle tough to predict playoff teams than I thought, and this is one that I got right, even though I said they would be a Wild Card. I only missed by about 2 games, so I am giving myself a:

1 THUMBS UP

CINCINNATI BENGALS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (13-4)

1st in AFC North, 1st in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

4th in AFC North, 8th in Conference

Injuries happen, and it just so happened that the team I had being the 1 seed in the AFC lost it's QB for most the season. Now this is where it gets tricky to give myself a grade, because the Joe Burrow injury did alter their season entirely, but would this team still have gone 13-4 with him and had the 1 seed? No. The Bengals regressed a bit this year, and I think if they still had Burrow, they probably would have made a Wild Card, but not a 1 seed. I did predict that the AFC North would have 3 playoff teams, however, even if they were the wrong teams. I think this is a good scenario for me to use the :

NEUTRAL GRADE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (6-11)

4th in AFC East, 13th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(4-13)

4th in AFC East, 16th in Conference

The Patriots are looking to completly rebuild their team, even considering firing their head coach. I expected them to be last in their division, and that a major regression was coming, but I didn't really expect a potential full on rebuild for them, just a bridge year until they fiind their guy, but they will have to find their guy and a lot more. Considering that they were last in the division, and I missed by a couple games, I think it's not unfair to give it a :

2 THUMBS UP

NEW YORK JETS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (8-9)

3rd in AFC East, 9th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(7-10)

3rd in AFC East, 13th in Conference

Once again, no-one really could have predicted Aaron Rodgers to miss the whole season after they poured a lot of investment into him. However, I did predict them to not be very good even with Rodgers. Considering I missed the win total by 1, and that was with them having Rodgers, I think I had a lot of concerns for Saleh, and I felt like this team was fated to have a similar season to the 2022 Broncos, although they were a hair better. I think it is pretty fair for me to give myself a win here:

2 THUMBS UP

MIAMI DOLPHINS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (9-8)

2nd in AFC East, 8th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(11-6)

2nd in AFC East, 6th in Conference

Funnily enough, I didn't have any strong opinions on the Dolphins going into the year. I felt like they were a shootout team with a killer offense and a bad defense. As it turns out, they did have a killer offense, yet there wasn't much faith in Tua this year because they couldn't beat good teams. The defense was better than expected though, and I missed the mark and said they wouldn't make the playoffs when they were almost the 2 seed by Week 18. Even though it was within 2, I said they would miss the playoffs, but they had a pretty impressive season, so I am giving myself an unfortunate:

1 THUMBS DOWN

BUFFALO BILLS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (12-5)

1st in AFC East, 2nd in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(11-6)

1st in AFC North, 2nd in Conference

I very much so liked the Bills this year, as I had them in the 2 seed, and winning the East, and that is exactly what they did. This team went through a stretch this season where it didn't seem like they would make the playoffs period, but they ended the year as a very hot team. I missed their win total by about 1 win, but considering I got the order of teams right in the East, and I figured that there's not much wrong I got about the Bills, so:

2 THUMBS UP

TENNESSEE TITANS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (4-13)

4th in AFC South, 16th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(6-11)

4th in AFC South, 14th in Conference

I said that the Titans would be the worst team in the AFC, and my points to defend that were they only had 2 old stars with an awful qb room. Even though I missed their total by 2 games, I think I missed the mark on this team. Were they bad? Yes, they were bad, but they had some bright spots in a season where I didn't expect any. I think saying that they were going to be the worst team in the AFC is worthy of a:

1 THUMBS DOWN

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (6-11)

3rd in AFC South, 14th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

3rd in AFC South, 10th in Conference

And here is where it all comes down. I thought that the only appealing thing about this team was the run game with Taylor and Richardson, and that the rest of the team wasn't good. I was very wrong, as they have stars on offense and defense, and they are extremly well coached. This team beat my win total by 3 with a back-up QB, and that is pretty embarassing on my part. Yes they missed the playoffs, but it came down to a Week 18 matchup to decide that. I took a huge whiff on the Colts:

2 THUMBS DOWN

HOUSTON TEXANS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (7-10)

2nd in AFC South, 12th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(10-7)

1st in AFC South, 4th in Conference

I am a little mixed up here, as I started off my prediction by saying that they were going to shock people this year. People were down on them coming into the season, and I thought they were going to be significantly better. However, I didn't have the guts to give them a better win total than 7. So, I missed the total by about 3 wins, but everyone was down on this team going into the year, and I wasn't as down on them. So, I don't feel like I can give myself a thumbs up, or down, but rather:

NEUTRAL GRADE

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (10-7)

1st in AFC South, 4th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

2nd in AFC South, 9th in Conference

Well, it is hard to describe the Jags season as anything but dissapointing after Week 18. This is another wierd situation where I essentially only missed the win total by 1 game, but they didn't make the playoffs when I predicted them to. I think this is another case of :

NEUTRAL GRADE

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (5-12)

4th in AFC West, 15th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(8-9)

2nd in AFC West, 11th in Conference

In my pre-season prediction, I said that the Raiders got pretty lucky last year, and that they wouldn't be as lucky this year. That started to seem like it was the case, until they fired their head coach and started playing inspired football. It is amazing what a good head coach can do for you, and what Pearce has brought to that Raider team is special, especially if you told someone they would go 8-9 in a year they fired their coach. I missed the mark on this one as well, so it is a:

1 THUMBS DOWN

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (8-9)

3rd in AFC West, 10th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(5-12)

4th in AFC West, 15th in Conference

The Chargers are like the opposite of the Texans, as everyone was pretty high on the Chargers, and I was lower than most, but it turned out that they were even worse than I thought. The Chargers have a good QB, and a good core roster, but they don't have a coach that can lead them to anything, and that was apparent this season:

1 THUMBS DOWN

DENVER BRONCOS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (11-6)

2nd in AFC West, 6th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(8-9)

3rd in AFC West, 12th in Conference

Well. The Broncos did improve with Sean Payton as the coach, but not all the way to an 11 win total like I thought they might. Instead, it was the defense that let this team down. I know, the defense played better on their 5 game win streak they had, but the defense was the reason they lost those games early in the season, and the crucial ones late. This team could win 11 games next year, pending on their QB situation, as Russ appears to be gone after this season, even though he put up top 10 QB numbers. regardless, this prediction of 11 wins is worthy of:

1 THUMBS DOWN

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (12-5)

1st in AFC West, 3rd in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(11-6)

1st in AFC West, 3rd in Conference

Thank god I got the Cheifs prediction right, or else my AFC West predictions would have been a total mess. I said the Chiefs would win the division, but ultimately regress from last year, and I think anyone that watched them play this year, would agree with that statement. Their defense won them games, they had a bad off-season. I think I sort of nailed this prediction, as they even ended as the 3 seed:

2 THUMBS UP

CHICAGO BEARS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (7-10)

4th in NFC North, 12th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(7-10)

4th in NFC North, 11th in Conference

On the dot. In my prediction, I said that 7 wins feels perfect for this team, as the roster completely improved, and that the difference maker would be Fields. He won them some games, and lost them others, and it feels like the case for him is in the same spot as when this season started. I don't know what they do with Fields, but what I do know, is that this is an on the money prediction:

2 THUMBS UP

GREEN BAY PACKERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (7-10)

3rd in NFC North, 11th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

2nd in NFC North, 7th in Conference

Funnily enough, what I said about the Packers is spot on how their season went, but I still missed on them missing the playoffs and off by 2 wins. What I said pre-season: "The first year without Rodgers, may not go as bad as people think for the cheese-heads. I don't think it will be an immediate transition into success again, but I think Jordan Love has all the talent in the world, and he looked really sharp last season. I thought they drafted really well, tight-ends are a young QB's best friend, and they drafted two very talented ones. I think the defense is decent, and the pass rush lacking. I don't think they are going to win a lot of games, and I think people are expecting that, but I don't think it will be because of the play at QB, but an mediocre roster." Unfortunate I couldn't get the win total right though, so it will be another:

1 THUMBS DOWN

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (8-9)

2nd in NFC North, 9th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(7-10)

3rd in NFC North, 10th in Conference

I kind of lucked into getting this win total right, as they did have a good offense like I said, but their defense showed major improvement in the 2nd half of the season. If this team had a healthy Kirk Cousins all year they would have blown past 8 wins, so I think I don't deserve much praise for my record prediction, but I am going to take it, for sure:

1 THUMBS UP

DETROIT LIONS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (12-5)

1st in NFC North, 3rd in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(12-5)

1st in NFC North, 3rd in Conference

Just Like I did for the Bears, I was money about the Lions, and I am going to present what I said about them pre-season again: "I am not a fan of the Lions, nor do I have any bias towards them, but man am I ready to watch some Lions football this season. I am eager and excited to see this team ball out on sundays. This was already an elite roster that just barely missed the playoffs, and it somehow got even better!? They have a top 5 offensive line, good recievers, good tight-ends, and a good defense that added some big play-makers. Like him or not, Jared Goff has played in a lot of big games in his life, and I think that kind of experience is extremly important for a young team like this. Did I mention that I loved their draft? Because I did. They drafted studs all throughout the draft in almost every round." I was excited for Lions football, and they definitely delivered  

2 THUMBS UP

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (5-12)

4th in NFC East, 14th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(4-13)

4th in NFC East, 14th in Conference

The Commanders didn't have an amazing season, and. now are wondering if Sam Howell is actually the guy, and idk if he is. This just felt like a bridge year, and I commend them for making changes to better themselves, got rid of Snyder, got rid of the head coach, and could maybe get a new QB. As for their 5 wins i predicted to their 4, their season went as well as I thought it would. The end of an era is Washington D.C., and the start of a new one:

2 THUMBS UP

NEW YORK GIANTS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (10-7)

3rd in NFC East, 6th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(6-11)

3rd in NFC East, 13th in Conference

Yikes. The Giants are my 3rd worst miss on the season, as I had them making the playoffs, after a season where they won a playoff game. That was my reasoning, that they had just come off a season that was successful, and they had an alright offseason, so it made sense for them to get 10 wins, but this season showed some massive holes on the team. They also lost Daniel Jones for most of the season to a torn ACL, which didn't help their odds of being successful. This looks pretty bad for me:

2 THUMBS DOWN

DALLAS COWBOYS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (11-6)

2nd in NFC East, 5th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(12-5)

1st in NFC East, 2nd in Conference

I may have under-estimated the Cowboys, even if I only missed the win total by a game. They were elite, and Dak should probably win MVP, something that I didn't expect to admit. The Cowboys won the East over the Eagles, something that I didn't think they would probably do. When I did my pre-season prediction, I said that it could be their year if Dak was good, and he was, so does that mean it's their year?:

1 THUMBS UP

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (13-4)

1st in NFC East, 2nd in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(11-6)

2nd in NFC East, 5th in Conference

Well, I said that they had an easy schedule, and I think they took advantage of it. However, going into the playoffs, they seem like 1st round exits. As for the regular season, they fell off hard at the end, struggling mightily I don't really have an explanation, their roster is still incredible. Their defense has played bad down the stretch, and Hurts has played bad down the stretch. I think there are probably some very concerned people in Philly right now:

1 THUMBS UP

TAMPA BAY BUCS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (3-14)

4th in NFC South, 16th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

1st in NFC South, 4th in Conference

And this is my 2nd worst prediction before the year. I really have no words, I was completely wrong about this team, so that means:

2 THUMBS DOWN

ATLANTA FALCONS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (8-9)

3rd in NFC South, 10th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(7-10)

3rd in NFC South, 12th in Conference

I had the Falcons 1 win better than they actually turned out. I said they had a sneaky good roster and that they would squeak out some good wins and get close, but that they were at least another year out, I think this is a solid prediction for what turned out to be a good team outside of the QB and Coach. So, I think that it makes sense to give it:

1 THUMBS UP

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (9-8)

2nd in NFC South, 8th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

2nd in NFC South, 9th in Conference

"I have the Saints just barely missing the playoffs this season. When I went through and filled out the predictions, it gave a team to be named later the playoff spot due to win %. The Saints are okay, they have a decent roster, with some very solid players. I don't think they are really in a position to win a ton of games, because they have some holes. However, it is the Saints, and it always feels like they find ways to win games, find ways to make the playoffs, so, I gave them some cushion. It will also be very interesting to see Carr outside of the Raiders organization and see how he fairs." Couldn't have said it better myself, oh wait, I said this before the season:

2 THUMBS UP

CAROLINA PANTHERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (9-8)

1st in NFC South, 4th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(2-15)

4th in NFC South, 16th in Conference

And here's my worst prediction of the year. I had them as a division winner, they are easily the worst team in the league. I made the mistake of assuming they would build off of what they had last year, but they did not at all. The free agency additions did not do any help, and Young was playing with no team around him. This is an absolute trash pick, so it gets:

2 THUMBS DOWN

ARIZONA CARDINALS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (3-14)

4th in NFC West, 15th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(4-13)

4th in NFC West, 15th in Conference

I think this is the best 4-13 season I have ever seen. So much to be excited for, as they got a QB, a coach, and a few high picks in the draft, an excellent way to begin the rebuild. I missed the mark by 1 game, but I don't think thats enough to stop me from giving myself:

2 THUMBS UP

LOS ANGELES RAMS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (5-12)

3rd in NFC West, 13th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(10-7)

2nd in NFC West, 6th in Conference

Pretty huge whiff here. The Rams were a force to be reckoned with on offense, and the defense was league average. I love how the Rams have been drafting late in seasons. I said regression was coming for the Rams, and I feel I was very wrong about that. They can have an excellent future, so long as they keep killing it in the draft:

2 THUMBS DOWN

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (9-8)

2nd in NFC West, 7th in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(9-8)

3rd in NFC West, 8th in Conference

Another money pick, as I had them going 9-8. They missed the playoffs this year, however that is due to strength of schedule. I said that they had a decent off-season, but that the Geno story is over, and I'm afraid it is. He held this team back from being Super-Bowl Caliber. I think it's time to move off him, and maybe bring Russ home Since the win total was spot on, I get:

2 THUMBS UP

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

PRE-SEASON PREDICTION:

 (13-4)

1st in NFC West, 1st in Conference

ACTUAL RECORD: 

(12-5)

1st in NFC West, 1st in Conference

The Niners are good, everyone knew they were going to be good, so now the conversation is how much credit do I get for getting them as the 1 seed. I think since I overshot them by a game, I think that is only worthy of:

1 THUMBS UP

WRITTEN BY RYAN UPP 1/8/24